Conditional dependence structure and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and fiat currencies

This paper investigates the extreme dependence and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and the currencies of the BRICS and G7 economies. We find time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and all currencies. Moreover, when analysing risk spillovers from Bitcoin to currencies, we find that Bitcoin exercises significant power over most currencies, with the South African rand and Brazilian real holding both the highest downside and upside risk before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period, respectively. When considering risk spillovers from currencies towards Bitcoin, the Japanese yen exhibits the highest downside spillovers. Importantly, we find asymmetric spillovers between extreme upward and downward movements. • We study dependencies between Bitcoin and the currencies of the BRICS and G7 economies. • We find time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and all of the fiat currencies. • Bitcoin exercises significant power over most of the considered currencies. • We find asymmetric spillovers between extreme upward and downward movements. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Upside/Downside spillovers between oil and Chinese stock sectors: From the global financial crisis to global pandemic

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, recent oil price fall, and both global and European financial crises on dependence structure and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil and Chinese stock sectors. Using time-varying symmetric and asymmetric copula functions and the conditional Value at Risk measure, we provide evidence of positive tail dependence in most sectors using copula and conditional Value-at-Risk techniques. We can see the average dependence between oil and industries during the oil crisis. Moreover, we find strong evidence of bidirectional risk spillovers for all oil-sector pairs. The intensity of risk spillovers from oil to all stock sectors varies across sectors. The risk spillovers from sectors to oil are substantially larger than those from oil to sectors during COVID-19. Furthermore, the return spillover is time varying and sensitive to external shocks. The spillover strengths are higher during COVID-19 than financial and oil crises. Finally, oil do not exhibit neither hedge nor safe-haven characteristics irrespective of crisis periods.

Portfolio Diversification during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Do Vaccinations Matter?☆

The COVID-19 vaccine rollout expects to mitigate the severe negative impacts of the pandemic on global financial markets. Our study provides supporting evidence for this expectation. We find robust evidence that vaccinations significantly reduce the cross-country stock volatility connectedness among G7 nations, suggesting that the diversification benefits of an international equity portfolio may be enhanced during the pandemic when vaccinations accelerate. We present two explanations for this result. First, the vaccine deployment improves stock market return and decreases individual stock market volatility. Second, the vaccine rollout helps a country's stock market be more resilient to exogenous shocks. We further demonstrate that a global portfolio using a tactical allocation rule based on the intensity of vaccinations can outperform a buy-and-hold portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted returns.

Frequency spillovers between green bonds, global factors and stock market before and during COVID-19 crisis.

This paper examines frequency dynamic spillovers in return and volatility and the hedging ability of Green Bonds, gold, silver, oil, the US dollar index, and volatility index against downside US stock prices before and during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and for the short and long run. To do so, we use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), the TVP-VAR model, and the frequency spillover index by Baruník and Krehlík (2018). We show that the short-term volatility spillovers dominate their long-term counterparts. Green Bond is net transmitters of spillovers in the system at the short term and net receivers at the long term. S&P500 and silver (USDX and oil) are net transmitters (receivers) of short- and long-term spillovers. Gold and VIX are net receivers of short-term spillovers and net transmitters of long-term spillovers. COVID-19 crisis has more effects on the short-term spillover, which reaches its highest level early 2020. COVID-19 and time horizons lead the direction and the magnitude of spillovers. The Quantile-on-Quantile regression analysis shows significant nonlinear relationships between markets under study. More interestingly, we show that green bonds and gold are safe haven assets for US equity investors during COVID-19. On the other hand, a mixed portfolio offers higher diversification benefits. Finally, hedging effectiveness is dependent on COVID-19 and time horizon.

Frequency dependence between oil futures and international stock markets and the role of gold, bonds, and uncertainty indices: Evidence from partial and multivariate wavelet approaches

This paper examines the frequency dynamic co-movements between crude oil prices and stock market returns of three developed economies (Canada, Japan, and the USA) and the emerging BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economies by considering four global factors (U.S. treasury bills, S&P volatility index, gold price, and U.S. EPU index). Using bivariate and multivariate wavelet approaches, the results show evidence of time-frequency co-movements between the considered markets at medium and low frequencies. Besides, the results reveal that the co-movement is intensified during global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods, confirming recoupling hypothesis. The risk analysis reveals dependence and persistence of co-movements, and aggravation of portfolio risk in the BRICS economies and across markets during bouts of afflictions. These findings should encourage the relevant national and transnational policy makers to consider these co-movements which vary over time and in duration when setting up regulations that deem to enhance the market efficiency.

Extreme return spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and precious metals futures markets: Implications for portfolio management

This paper examines quantile return spillovers and the connectedness between crude oil futures and key precious metals (PMs) using the approach developed by Ando et al. (2022). Our findings show that using the cross-quantilogram directional spillover method results in significant spillovers from oil to PMs under an extreme downside oil market scenario. Oil impacts both palladium and platinum under an extreme upside oil market status. Under normal oil market conditions, we show insignificant spillovers from oil to PMs. We find an insignificant dependence of PMs on oil during bearish markets, indicating that PMs serve as a safe haven asset. However, we find that oil and palladium are net receivers of spillovers across quantiles, except for palladium at intermediate quantiles, and other PMs are net contributors of spillovers across all quantiles. The spillovers are higher at extreme quantiles and increase during extreme events. Furthermore, we find no connection between platinum and gold under normal market conditions and a weak connection between platinum and both silver and palladium during bearish market scenarios. Precious metals are good diversifying assets for oil portfolios. The hedging strategy using PMs is less expensive during the COVID-19 pandemic than before it, with the exception of platinum. Finally, PMs offer higher hedging effectiveness before the pandemic crisis, whereas palladium provides the highest hedging effectiveness before and during the pandemic crisis.

Do oil shocks affect the green bond market?

This study examines the predictive power of oil shocks for the green bond markets. In line with this aim, we investigated the extent to which oil shocks could be used to accurately make in- and out-of-sample forecasts for green bond returns. Three striking findings emanated from our results: First, the three types of oil shock are reliable predictors for green bond indices. Second, the performances of the predictive models were consistent across the different forecasting horizons (i.e. H = 1 to H = 24). Third, our findings were sensitive to classifying the dataset into pre-COVID and COVID eras. For instance, the results confirmed that the predictive power of oil shocks declined during the crisis period. We also discuss some policy implications of this study's findings.

Extreme quantile connectedness and spillovers between oil and Vietnamese stock markets: a sectoral analysis

Purpose This study examines the extreme quantile connectedness and spillovers between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures and ten Vietnamese stock market sectors. Knowledge of such links is important to both investors and policymakers in understanding the transmission of shocks across markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ the extreme quantile connectedness methodology of Ando et al. (2022). Findings Initial results show that the size of spillovers is higher during bearish markets than bullish markets and under major financial, political, energy and pandemic events. The oil market is a net receiver of spillovers during downward markets and net contributors during upward markets. The banking sector is a net contributor of spillovers, whereas consumer discretionary and consumer staples are net receivers for different quantiles. The role of the remaining sectors as net receivers/contributors is sensitive to the quantiles. Oil has a large spillover effect on the electricity sector for all quantiles. Comparing all crises, oil offers the best hedging effectiveness to the Vietnamese sector during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. Moreover, oil was a cheap hedge asset during oil crises. Finally, oil provides the highest hedging effectiveness for healthcare during the global financial crisis (GFC) and consumer staples during the European debt crisis (EDC), oil crisis and COVID-19. Originality/value Acknowledging the presence of heterogeneity in the relation between oil and economic sectors under different market conditions, this study is the first to examine the extreme quantile connectedness between oil and Vietnamese sectors.

Multi-scale Features of Interdependence Between Oil Prices and Stock Prices

This paper investigates the time-varying connectedness between oil prices and the stock prices in African markets. We employ a wavelet-based dynamic conditional correlation framework, which allows us to look into the time-varying correlation between oil and African stock markets in time and frequency domains. Empirical results show the interdependence between oil prices and African stock market prices are time-varying and spread across various wavelet scales. More importantly, the dynamic relationship between oil prices and stock returns in these countries varies more frequently and at a lower level in the short run. However, we find the long and medium-range co-movements between them except during the Covid-19 period when short-term integration increased considerably, which might help portfolio managers and investors mitigate risk. We identify the hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights for practical implications based on the said assets' dynamic conditional correlation.

Spillovers and diversification benefits between oil futures and ASEAN stock markets

This study combines copula functions, wavelet decomposition and conditional VaR methods to examine spillovers and diversification benefits between oil futures and ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand). The results show zero tail dependence between oil and stock returns at the short term. In contrast, we find a lower tail independence and an upper tail dependence at the long term. Our results highlight that oil futures serve as hedge assets at short term and a safe haven asset at the long term. Furthermore, we find significant and asymmetric risk spillovers from oil to ASEAN markets. The downside and upside spillovers are higher at the long term than short term and increase during the GFC, the recent oil crisis, and COVID-19 periods. Finally, we show that an equally weighted portfolio provides highest diversification benefits at both lower and medium tail distributions with the exception of Malaysian market. The diversification benefits of oil are sizeable for less coupling markets and fall during times of GFC and oil crisis.

Conditional dependence structure and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and fiat currencies

This paper investigates the extreme dependence and risk spillovers between Bitcoin and the currencies of the BRICS and G7 economies. We find time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and all currencies. Moreover, when analysing risk spillovers from Bitcoin to currencies, we find that Bitcoin exercises significant power over most currencies, with the South African rand and Brazilian real holding both the highest downside and upside risk before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period, respectively. When considering risk spillovers from currencies towards Bitcoin, the Japanese yen exhibits the highest downside spillovers. Importantly, we find asymmetric spillovers between extreme upward and downward movements.

Uncertainty measures and inflation dynamics in selected global players: a wavelet approach.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risks (GPR), the interaction of EPU and GPR (EPGR), and inflation in the USA, Canada, the UK, Japan, and China. We employ the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to track the evolution of model variables and the wavelet coherence (WC) to examine the co-movement and lead-lag status of the series across different frequencies and time. To strengthen the WC, we apply the multiple wavelet coherence (MWC) to determine how good the linear combination of independent variables co-moves with inflation across various time-frequency domains. The CWT reveals heterogeneous characteristics in the evolution of each variable across frequencies. Inflation across samples shows strong variance in the short-term and medium-term while the volatility fizzles out in the long-term. For the explanatory variables, a similar pattern holds for EPU except for Japan and China, where coherence is evident in the short-term. The USA's and Canada's GPR reveal strong coherence in the short- and medium-term. Also, the UK and China reflect strong coherence in the short-term but weak significance in the medium-term, while Japan's GPR reflects only strong coherence in the short-term. The EPGR shows strong variation in the short-and-medium-term in the samples except in China. The WC's phase-difference reflects bidirectional causalities and switches in signs among series across different scales and periods in the samples, while the MWC reveals the combined intensity, strength, and significance of both EPU and GPR in predicting inflation across frequency bands among the countries. Findings also show significant co-movement among series at date-stamped periods, corroborating critical global events such as the Asian financial crisis, Global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic. The paper has policy implications.

Frequency Connectedness and Spillovers among Oil and Islamic Sector Stock Markets: Portfolio Hedging Implications

Using the asymmetric Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK)-GARCH model and the frequency spillover methodology by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), this paper examines spillovers and portfolio management between crude oil and US Islamic sector stocks. The results show significant time-varying spillovers between oil and Islamic sectors. The short-term spillovers are stronger than their long-term counterparts. The spillovers intensify during extreme events (global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic). The aggregate index, consumer services, raw materials, and manufacturing are net contributors of spillovers in the short term, whereas the remaining sectors are net recipients. In the long-term horizon, we find that consumer goods and finance become net transmitters of spillovers. The raw materials sector becomes a net recipient of spillovers in the long term. Finally, hedging effectiveness is lower in the long term than in the short term during the oil crisis in 2015-2016 and the US presidential election in 2017, US-China trade tension, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Return and Volatility Connectedness of NFT Segments and Media Coverage: Fresh Evidence Based on News About the COVID-19 Pandemic.

We study the relationship between return and volatility of non-fungible tokens (NFT) segments and media coverage during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in a connectedness framework. We document media coverage as a net transmitter of spillover for both the return and volatility of NFT segments. We find that NFTs representing the Utilities segment is a major transmitter of spillover. Our findings have important implications for portfolio managers, regulators, and policymakers.

Pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes before and during COVID-19 crisis

We examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic crisis on the pricing efficiency and asymmetric multifractality of major asset classes (S&P500, US Treasury bond, US dollar index, Bitcoin, Brent oil, and gold) within a dynamic framework. Applying permutation entropy on intraday data that covers between April 30, 2019 and May 13, 2020, we show that efficiency of all sample asset classes is deteriorated with the outbreak, and in most cases this deterioration is significant. Results are found to be robust under different analysis schemes. Brent oil is the highest efficient market before and during crisis. The degree of efficiency is heterogeneous among all markets. The analysis by an asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) approach shows evidence of asymmetric multifractality in all markets which rise with the scales. The inefficiency is higher during downward trends before the pandemic crisis as well as during COVID-19 except for gold and Bitcoin. Moreover, the pandemic intensifies the inefficiency of all markets except Bitcoin. Findings reveal increased opportunities for price predictions and abnormal returns gains during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Spillovers and connectedness between green bond and stock markets in bearish and bullish market scenarios

This study examines the quantile connectedness between eight green bonds and the S&P 500 index using the methodology of Ando et al. (2022). We show that green bonds and the S&P 500 index exhibit stronger connectedness during crises (GFC, COVID-19, etc.). Furthermore, green bonds are relatively less volatile during extraordinary events. The distribution tails dictate connectedness (short-term) in the wake of extreme events. The quantile spillover in the green financial markets largely originates from their energy and resource (water conservation) counterparts. These observations underscore the prevalence of upside, downside, and tail risks from green stock markets, particularly following crisis events.

Switching connectedness between real estate investment trusts, oil, and gold markets

We study price-switching spillovers between real estate investment trusts (REITs), oil, and gold markets by considering high- and low-volatility regimes as described by Markov-switching vector autoregression. Empirical results for different REIT markets indicate that gold (oil) has a lower (higher) impact on REITs in a high-volatility regime than in a low-volatility regime. Furthermore, in a low-volatility regime, gold and oil are net spillover contributors to REITs, while in a high-volatility regime, REITs are net spillover contributors. Price spillovers are time-varying, and climb during the early COVID-19 pandemic period and in early 2022.

Return and volatility connectedness of the non-fungible tokens segments

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have garnered attention from investors and the general public. This pioneering study analyzes the connectedness of five NFT segments by employing the TVP-VAR based connectedness approach of Antonakakis et al. (2020) to identify the transmitter and receivers of spillover for both return and volatility of NFT segments. Our results show that Utility NFTs are the main transmitter of spillover, whereas the collectible NFTs are the main recipient of spillover for both return and volatility. Our findings have important implications for both investors and policy makers.

COVID-19 pandemic's impact on intraday volatility spillover between oil, gold, and stock markets.

This study examines the volatility spillovers between the US stock market (S&P500 index) and both oil and gold before and during the global health crisis (GHC). We apply the FIAPARCH-DCC model to the 15-minute intraday data. The results showed negative (positive) conditional correlations between the S&P500 and gold (oil). The time-varying conditional correlations between markets were higher during COVID-19 spread. Moreover, gold offers more diversification gains than oil does during the pandemic. Hedging is more expensive during a pandemic than before. Oil provides higher hedging effectiveness (HE) than gold for all sub-periods. HE was lower during the COVID-19 outbreak for both oil and gold. These findings have important implications for both equity investors and policymakers.

Asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and currency markets using high-frequency data

This paper examines the asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between the spot prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and six popular currencies—the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. We analyze the asymmetric realized volatility spillovers spot prices as well as the higher moments such as their realized skewness and kurtosis. The estimated results indicate that these markets are strongly interconnected and that the currencies of larger economies as well as resource exporters are mainly net transmitters of volatility. However, this attribute is time-varying, especially during global economic events/shocks. The asymmetric volatility analysis finds that bad volatilities trump good ones on average. This attribute of the sample markets is also time-varying. The evaluation of directional networks in semi-variances reveals the dominance of bad volatilities over good ones and that bad volatilities from the currencies of larger and resource-based economies and the crude oil market are imparted for the most part. Moreover, the bad volatility of the British Pound, especially in the wake of Brexit, is a key contributor of its good volatility. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, currencies of resource-based economies as well as the crude oil appear to impart small magnitudes of good volatilities. These findings have important implications for policymakers and highlight the need for responses tailored to different periods and markets.